Southwest Securities in 2009 strategy main stock index ended at 1,400 points, adjusted

fluctuated in 2009, between Bull and Bear or switched to Southwest Securities Research Institute

economic outlook is expected to clear in the policy space is still large, low basic confirmation of the market, the 2009 overall downward trend will be a bear market pattern of unilateral change, or will arise in the "mini-bull market" and "mini-bear market" alternate play, index of wide fluctuations in the shock transition situation. Shanghai Stock Index price point trading range 1400-4000; prices in the 2500-3000 central point; run pattern is: up - down - pick-up.
technical analysis, market rally ascribed a new low after the test a low probability of a larger drop. The Shanghai Composite Index fell from 6124 points to enter since adjust to ABC zigzag start, A wave of adjustments have been completed in 1664 points to enter the B wave rally. High rebound is expected to reach 4,000 points, a rebound to near the 3,000 resistance to withstand the test of time. Under the existing law of the cycle, the high point rebound in the first half of 2009. C wave decline is followed by a rebound, the final low is likely to break under 1664 points, ended at around 1400, low there may be three-quarter time. After the index rebounded.
from the fundamental point of view, the economic turning point has occurred, the pressure performance of listed companies will also be shown in the following, the stock market seems to be no reason for a rebound; but our stock market "barometer" of the function is yet to improve, the stock market ups and downs in the economy inflection point within the period before and after the performance of listed companies as well as the correlation of economic growth weakened. Low when the stock market next year as the economy appears less likely to bottom. In fact, the early stock market crash and the current downturn has been largely "advance" or even "advance" on future economic and corporate performance expectations. Data indicate that the level of change in the stock market run price-earnings ratio is consistent with the PE ratio can be integrated in the economic, performance, the relationship between stock prices. PE investments are based on simple and effective method. Price-earnings ratio of 15 times the current level, with investment value.