Xiaonian: I wanted to say macroeconomic, because just a few comments I can not agree, do predict this macro policy is do not fly, and I have been on the macro economy, has taught macroeconomics, I do not do Romance Elective compulsory to do, I have no opinion or even abolished, in fact, is a pseudo-science of macroeconomic. Macroeconomic forecasts, so that was very frustrating, not because of the old lost to Song Guoqing, Song Guoqing but later found better links with the Bureau of Statistics.
This is very do not fly the thing, the State Council to fine-tune the economy, just right neither too much nor lacking, there is no way such a thing to do, to do such a thing to the premise that accurate forecasts on the economy, such policies have advance. We know the forecast is full of errors, personal judgments, not the decisive event. And China, do predict, forecast to do better must have reliable data, how reliable the data we, Song Guoqing better than I do, because he more than communicate with the Bureau of Statistics. We macro-control we find that our God, we want down when inflation is down, CPI4.9 how also does not get hit, CPI is indeed declining, but the sum of the individual increases can not be put on how we say control the inflation rate down, we say that domestic demand continued to come up. August retail sales growth, do not know how to see, an increase of 20%, after deducting the inflation, real growth 16,17, it does not know where he comes from, and last year's GDP growth of 11.9%, the investment and consumption, import and export so add up, then check out the power consumption and 11.9, and did not last. If consumption, investment, import and export operator, last year's GDP growth between 14-15. Therefore, such data errors filled with unconscious, conscious we macroeconomists unemployment would be finished altogether. How the future development of the macroeconomic forecast, if not a very good forecast, the policy of how we can get you fine-tune just right? So macroeconomic really pseudo-science.
I think we need to discuss current issues, I think the key issue is not that GDP growth rate down, I agree with the observation of the Qing state, the economy continued to weaken. Do not re-bearing monetary policy to re-strict, I think this is not the crux of the problem, you relax, always have loose early, loose late, there may not be in place, there may be explored, and never have this problem, as long as we on this data is not complete, is full of errors, only caught a small part of the economy, our forecast will appear biased. This issue I went back to my question on the sudden, the United States such a big thing in U.S. monetary policy too loose, release excessive liquidity, the market price of funds (185, -9.71, -5.00%, right) grid completely distorted and twisted under the guidance of financial prices, investment banks began to engage in financial innovation, come up with the progress of various innovation measures because of Greenspan. Greenspan historical status of individuals in a few months a dramatic change, from one of the greatest bankers now descended to the sub-prime crisis, U.S. financial tsunami culprit. Not the greatest banker Greenspan is Volcker, the reign of the much debated. So you say that Alan Greenspan so smart people, all filled with the similarly, how monetary policy, these big basket ah? So monetary policy to what extent we can control? Monetary policy is lucky no major problems have been lucky.
target is not fine-tune the economy with macroeconomic policies, macroeconomic how to make big mistakes but, to ensure macro-economic environment of stability, which has relatively good position. We look at Friedman's Monetary History of the United States, the U.S. monetary history, Friedman is a detailed review of U.S. monetary policy, with the data speak, not as we, today, not with empty arguments, using data words, that the U.S. 70s 80s monetary policy is not smooth economic fluctuations, on the contrary, the U.S. economic cycle is going to follow the U.S. monetary cycle, in other words monetary policy is not of economic stability but the economic cycle generator, money itself is the source of economic instability. Friedman stresses, therefore, in order to stabilize the economy the best monetary policy is monetary policy itself is stable. Therefore, the root causes of economic fluctuations, correlation analysis you do see very clearly the first wave of monetary policy, economic fluctuations in the latter, who is the cause, the results at a glance who is. This is a very big impact Greenspan, he will not do create economic instability in the Fed chairman, monetary policy should change course, resulting in excess liquidity.
so we macroeconomic, market front, forget about the situation of the market participants broke, do not do such a fantasy. What is the market? Market is beyond our cognitive ability, what is the nature of material nature is beyond human capacity. In the past we the Industrial Revolution, human head faint, that knowledge of human nature is to transform nature, and now do not say it? Why do not you say? We feel nature in the face of nature can not be modified, and money is the core of what school? Friedman's philosophy mean? Many of this world beyond the power of human capacity in the face of these forces, not imagining than the market, than natural, intelligent than God, 来 control of the market, transforming nature by the Cheng Fa honest, after a, and the natural Zuihao approach is to adapt to nature, understand nature in order to conform to nature, protection of nature.
also we say control of the market, macroeconomics is designed to control the market, if it is impossible to control the market, macroeconomics can not teach, but must be taught microeconomics. Our economy and our enterprises lack the flexibility of response, lack of sufficient flexibility to deal with this is our problem. Deal with the current dramatic changes in the macro environment, I think it is micro reform, to ask why our small and medium enterprises 10% appreciation of the renminbi can not live? "Labor Law" an enactment, the company increased by 10% the cost can not live? Why so long thin profit margins? Is there any way to increase the capacity of SMEs against risk? Is there any way to increase China's economic response to the macro environment? This is what we have to ask the question, so for us the urgency of micro-reform is far greater than on the macroeconomic forecast.
I finished, talk about the following? Market? In fact, no longer can the market has spoken, and that's all talked about, he does not listen to gamble more and harder, to see how the final end. Now get into the central enterprises, and he sent the State Department, the Ministry of Finance to buy their own stock, and what measures? You buy into the stock value in the end you know the Department of What? If not in the end the Department, to stop buying on the day when the market is Kuangpao. If a rational market, when the central enterprises stopped buying when the market must be in before they bought last a full throw to. Are such that any rational investor, how to judge the market to bottom? First to determine the profitability of the company in Shenzhen to the bottom? Determine profitability of listed companies, to judge China's economic growth to the bottom? Just said no way, no it was copied in the end. Everyone says buy the dips, the real in the market who buy the dips, and the real bargain-hunting is sitting at home, deliberately want to buy the dips in the generally hit the mountains, the market can be if we buy the dips, and this is not the market has. A considerable portion of the market is unknown. We measure the market, economics, called the policy an economic decline. Party published an editorial, the CCTV market for us and encouraging movement are not only took away 25 million you 忽悠 Who? Central enterprises we calculate the number of assets. Our capital markets are also the people back into the country, after the nationalization of who play this game? What market or markets? Progress downward how go? These problems are not considered, the old saying that the U.S. rescue we also rescue the United States and China, bailout rescue What is the difference? If you do not save the United States, the financial system close to collapse, so why do I see us online about Paulson to Perrusi (transliteration) kneel. If Goldman Sachs had been drained, there are who can not fall? So he can not save it? China to save who? To save what I do not know, I do not know what it save? Index fell to 2000 if you do not save the Chinese system on cross-effect? What the Chinese economy would be finished? I do not know what it save? Of course, when reporters sought to impose, or tomorrow I can not get Street. We have to think about some issues, such an approach, in the market, I very much agree with the Ying talk, children begin to walk in the Ying to introduce a wheelchair, in Ying began to eat solid food a child, and again Sanlu milk powder to the whole market when such mature ah? What is a mature market is not looking index of 6,000 or indices in 2000, the market will mature investors to assets based on risk and benefits of low prices. Seeing that we see fundamental investors, and everyone concerned about the economic future, when the stock market began to reflect fluctuations in the economy, the market value of the finally walked down the government over a stick open. Do not you see I look at the fundamentals of the policy. We go any connection with the policy, when our market price reflects only the value of the allocation of resources to be effective. We always look at the normal function of the normal function of a rare but also Qiaoxia Qu.
foundation for that? Is the foundation of rational analysis of the assets, the decision in a rational analysis of transactions, the formation of prices, reflecting the intrinsic value of the assets, the price model with price guide allocation of resources throughout society. Market is a function of his real economy, do not regard it as factories, people's livelihood and tools, it is the allocation of resources. Will stop here.
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